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Evidence levels: E0 to E5

HeuristicE1ArthurJun 1, 2026

Every claim in this wiki carries an evidence level from E0 to E5. The level does not say whether the claim is interesting or useful. It says how good the evidence behind it is. E0 is the strongest — raw, verifiable data. E5 is the weakest — speculation, clearly flagged as such. The point is not to hide weak claims. It is to never let a weak claim wear the clothes of a strong one.

What the levels mean

LevelWhat it isThe bar it clears
E0Primary data — raw market data, verified trade recordsOriginal source, no interpretation layer
E1Published research, peer-reviewed papers, official statistics, regulatory filingsCitable, verifiable, institutional
E2Multiple independent sources confirm the claimCross-referenced, reproducible
E3A single credible source, or well-reasoned analysisOne source, limitation acknowledged
E4Personal experience, interpreted data, extrapolationLabeled as interpretation
E5Speculation, anecdote, unverified claimClearly flagged as unverified

The scale runs from strong to weak: E0 is the highest-quality evidence, E5 the lowest. A claim's level is the floor of the evidence that supports it, not the ceiling of how confident the author feels.

Why a wiki about trading needs this

Most trading content collapses the distance between "I have a verified track record" and "this worked for me twice." It presents both with the same confidence, the same clean chart, the same certainty. That collapse is where most retail traders get hurt — not because the claim was false, but because they could not see how thin the evidence was.

Evidence levels force the distance back open. When you read an entry here, you see the level before you read the argument. An E1 claim grounded in a peer-reviewed paper and an E4 claim grounded in one trader's experience are both allowed to exist. They are simply not allowed to look the same.

This is also a discipline for the author. Attaching a level means you have to ask, before you publish: what actually backs this? Often the honest answer is lower than the answer you wanted. That gap is the most useful thing on the page.

How to read a level

A high level is not a verdict of importance. Some of the most useful ideas in markets sit at E3 or E4 — they are judgment, not proof, and they are labeled that way so you can weigh them as judgment. A low level is not a dismissal. It is an invitation to verify, to push back, to bring a better source. That is what the community notes and the flag system are for.

The rule underneath all of it: no claim should be more confident than its evidence. The level is how we keep that promise visible on every single page.

Community Notes

No community notes yet. Be the first to contribute.

Why this classification

Classified heuristic / E1. This entry is a methodological convention, not an empirical claim about markets — hence heuristic (a reasoning tool the wiki imposes on itself). It is E1 because the practice of grading evidence by source quality is established and published: the GRADE framework (Guyatt et al. 2008, BMJ) is the canonical example from evidence-based medicine, and the E0–E5 scale here is an adaptation of that lineage to discretionary trading. The specific six-level cut is the wiki's own design choice, which is why this is E1 rather than E0.

Connections

Knowledge Graph